Observational Constraints on the Response of High‐Latitude Northern Forests to Warming

Since the 1960s, carbon cycling in the high‐latitude northern forest (HLNF) has experienced dramatic changes: Most of the forest is greening and net carbon uptake from the atmosphere has increased. During the same time period, the CO₂ seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) has increased by ~50% or more. Disentangling complex processes that drive these changes has been challenging. In this study, we substitute spatial sensitivity to temperature for time to quantify the impact of temperature increase on gross primary production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER), the fraction of Photosynthetic Active Radiation (fPAR), and the resulted contribution of these changes in amplifying the CO₂ SCA over the HLNF since 1960s. We use the spatial heterogeneity of GPP inferred from solar‐induced chlorophyll Fluorescence in combination with net ecosystem exchange (NEE) inferred from column CO₂ observations made between 2015 and 2017 from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2. We find that three quarters of the spatial variations in GPP can be explained by the spatial variation in the growing season mean temperature (GSMT). The long term hindcast captures both the magnitude and spatial variability of the trends in observed fPAR. We estimate that between 1960 and 2010, the increase in GSMT enhanced both GPP and the SCA of NEE by ~20%. The calculated enhancement of NEE due to increase in GSMT contributes 56–72% of the trend in the CO₂ SCA at high latitudes, much larger than simulations by most biogeochemical models

Global Analysis of Bioclimatic Controls on Ecosystem Productivity Using Satellite Observations of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

Ecosystem productivity models rely on regional climatic information to estimate temperature and moisture constraints influencing plant growth. However, the productivity response to these environmental factors is uncertain at the global scale and has largely been defined using limited observations from sparse monitoring sites, including carbon flux towers. Recent studies have shown that satellite observations of Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) are highly correlated with ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). Here, we use a relatively long-term global SIF observational record from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) sensors to investigate the relationships between SIF, used as a proxy for GPP, and selected bio-climatic factors constraining plant growth at the global scale. We compared the satellite SIF retrievals with collocated GPP observations from a global network of tower carbon flux monitoring sites and surface meteorological data from model reanalysis, including soil moisture, Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), and minimum daily air temperature (Tmin). We found strong correspondence (R2 \u3e 80%) between SIF and GPP monthly climatologies for tower sites characterized by mixed, deciduous broadleaf, evergreen needleleaf forests, and croplands. For other land cover types including savanna, shrubland, and evergreen broadleaf forest, SIF showed significant but higher variability in correlations between sites. In order to analyze temperature and moisture related effects on ecosystem productivity, we divided SIF by photosynthetically active radiation (SIFp) and examined partial correlations between SIFp and the climatic factors across a global range of flux tower sites, and over broader regional and global extents. We found that productivity in arid ecosystems is more strongly controlled by soil water content to an extent that soil moisture explains a higher proportion of the seasonal cycle in productivity than VPD. At the global scale, ecosystem productivity is affected by joint climatic constraint factors so that VPD, Tmin, and soil moisture were significant (p \u3c 0.05) controls over 60, 59, and 35 percent of the global domain, respectively. Our study identifies and confirms dominant climate control factors influencing productivity at the global scale indicated from satellite SIF observations. The results are generally consistent with climate response characteristics indicated from sparse global tower observations, while providing more extensive coverage for verifying and refining global carbon and climate model assumptions and predictions

Towards a harmonized long‐term spaceborne record of far‐red solar induced fluorescence

Far‐red solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been retrieved from multiple satellites with nearly continuous global coverage since 1996. Multiple official and research‐grade retrievals provide a means for cross validation across sensors and algorithms, but produces substantial variation across products due to differences in instrument characteristics and retrieval algorithm. The lack of a consistent, calibrated SIF data set hampers scientific interpretation of planetary photosynthesis. NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO‐2) offers small sampling footprints, high data acquisition, and repeating spatially resolved targets at bioclimatically diverse locations, providing a unique benchmark for spaceborne sensors traceable to ground data. We leverage overlap between the longer running Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 (GOME‐2) SIF time series, and more recent state‐of‐the‐art OCO‐2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) data, in a first attempt to reconcile inconsistencies in the long‐term record. After screening and correcting for key instrument differences (time of day, wavelength, Sun‐sensor geometry, cloud effects, footprint area), we find that Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument perform exceedingly well in capturing spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability across OCO‐2 targets. However, Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 retrieval methods differ by up to a factor of 2 in signal‐to‐noise and magnitude. Magnitude differences are largely attributed to retrieval window choice, with wider windows producing higher magnitudes. The assumed SIF spectral shape has negligible effect. Substantial research is needed to understand remaining sensitivities to atmospheric absorption and reflectance. We conclude that OCO‐2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument have opened up the possibility to produce a multidecadal SIF record with well‐characterized uncertainty and error quantification for overlapping instruments, enabling back‐calibration of previous instruments and production of a consistent, research‐grade, harmonized time series

Systematic Orbital Geometry-Dependent Variations in Satellite Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) Retrievals

While solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) shows promise as a remotely-sensed measurement directly related to photosynthesis, interpretation and validation of satellite-based SIF retrievals remains a challenge. SIF is influenced by the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation at the canopy level that depends upon illumination geometry as well as the escape of SIF through the canopy that depends upon the viewing geometry. Several approaches to estimate the effects of sun-sensor geometry on satellite-based SIF have been proposed, and some have been implemented, most relying upon satellite reflectance measurements and/or other ancillary data sets. These approaches, designed to ultimately estimate intrinsic or physiological components of SIF related to photosynthesis, have not generally been applied globally to satellite measurements. Here, we examine in detail how SIF and related reflectance-based indices from wide swath polar orbiting satellites in low Earth orbit vary systematically due to the host satellite orbital characteristics. We compare SIF and reflectance-based parameters from the Global Ozone Mapping Experiment 2 (GOME-2) on the MetOp-B platform and from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Sentinel 5 Precursor satellite with a focus on high northern latitudes in summer where observations at similar geometries and local times occur. We show that GOME-2 and TROPOMI SIF observations agree nearly to within estimated uncertainties when they are compared at similar observing geometries. We show that the cross-track dependence of SIF normalized by PAR and related reflectance-based indices are highly correlated for dense canopies, but diverge substantially as the vegetation within a field-of-view becomes more sparse. This has implications for approaches that utilize reflectance measurements to help account for SIF geometrical dependences in satellite measurements. To further help interpret the GOME-2 and TROPOMI SIF observations, we simulated cross-track dependences of PAR normalized SIF and reflectance-based indices with the one dimensional Soil-Canopy Observation Photosynthesis and Energy fluxes (SCOPE) canopy radiative transfer model at sun–satellite geometries that occur across the wide swaths of these instruments and examine the geometrical dependencies of the various components (e.g., fraction of absorbed PAR, SIF yield, and escape of SIF from the canopy) of the observed SIF signal. The simulations show that most of the cross-track variations in SIF result from the escape of SIF through the scattering canopy and not the illumination

Towards a harmonized long‐term spaceborne record of far‐red solar induced fluorescence

Far‐red solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been retrieved from multiple satellites with nearly continuous global coverage since 1996. Multiple official and research‐grade retrievals provide a means for cross validation across sensors and algorithms, but produces substantial variation across products due to differences in instrument characteristics and retrieval algorithm. The lack of a consistent, calibrated SIF data set hampers scientific interpretation of planetary photosynthesis. NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO‐2) offers small sampling footprints, high data acquisition, and repeating spatially resolved targets at bioclimatically diverse locations, providing a unique benchmark for spaceborne sensors traceable to ground data. We leverage overlap between the longer running Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 (GOME‐2) SIF time series, and more recent state‐of‐the‐art OCO‐2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) data, in a first attempt to reconcile inconsistencies in the long‐term record. After screening and correcting for key instrument differences (time of day, wavelength, Sun‐sensor geometry, cloud effects, footprint area), we find that Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument perform exceedingly well in capturing spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability across OCO‐2 targets. However, Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument version 2 retrieval methods differ by up to a factor of 2 in signal‐to‐noise and magnitude. Magnitude differences are largely attributed to retrieval window choice, with wider windows producing higher magnitudes. The assumed SIF spectral shape has negligible effect. Substantial research is needed to understand remaining sensitivities to atmospheric absorption and reflectance. We conclude that OCO‐2 and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument have opened up the possibility to produce a multidecadal SIF record with well‐characterized uncertainty and error quantification for overlapping instruments, enabling back‐calibration of previous instruments and production of a consistent, research‐grade, harmonized time series

Scientific Communities Striving for a Common Cause: Innovations in Carbon Cycle Science

Where does the carbon released by burning fossil fuels go? Currently, ocean and land systems remove about half of the CO₂ emitted by human activities; the remainder stays in the atmosphere. These removal processes are sensitive to feedbacks in the energy, carbon, and water cycles that will change in the future. Observing how much carbon is taken up on land through photosynthesis is complicated because carbon is simultaneously respired by plants, animals, and microbes. Global observations from satellites and air samples suggest that natural ecosystems take up about as much CO₂ as they emit. To match the data, our land models generate imaginary Earths where carbon uptake and respiration are roughly balanced, but the absolute quantities of carbon being exchanged vary widely. Getting the magnitude of the flux is essential to make sure our models are capturing the right pattern for the right reasons. Combining two cutting-edge tools, carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), will help develop an independent answer of how much carbon is being taken up by global ecosystems. Photosynthesis requires CO₂, light, and water. OCS provides a spatially and temporally integrated picture of the “front door” of photosynthesis, proportional to CO₂ uptake and water loss through plant stomata. SIF provides a high-resolution snapshot of the “side door,” scaling with the light captured by leaves. These two independent pieces of information help us understand plant water and carbon exchange. A coordinated effort to generate SIF and OCS data through satellite, airborne, and ground observations will improve our process-based models to predict how these cycles will change in the future

Optimal model complexity for terrestrial carbon cycle prediction

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in modulating the interactions of climate with the Earth system, but different models often make vastly different predictions of its behavior. Efforts to reduce model uncertainty have commonly focused on model structure, namely by introducing additional processes and increasing structural complexity. However, the extent to which increased structural complexity can directly improve predictive skill is unclear. While adding processes may improve realism, the resulting models are often encumbered by a greater number of poorly determined or over-generalized parameters. To guide efficient model development, here we map the theoretical relationship between model complexity and predictive skill. To do so, we developed 16 structurally distinct carbon cycle models spanning an axis of complexity and incorporated them into a model–data fusion system. We calibrated each model at six globally distributed eddy covariance sites with long observation time series and under 42 data scenarios that resulted in different degrees of parameter uncertainty. For each combination of site, data scenario, and model, we then predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for validation against independent local site data. Though the maximum model complexity we evaluated is lower than most traditional terrestrial biosphere models, the complexity range we explored provides universal insight into the inter-relationship between structural uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model forecast skill. Specifically, increased complexity only improves forecast skill if parameters are adequately informed (e.g., when NEE observations are used for calibration). Otherwise, increased complexity can degrade skill and an intermediate-complexity model is optimal. This finding remains consistent regardless of whether NEE or LAI is predicted. Our COMPLexity EXperiment (COMPLEX) highlights the importance of robust observation-based parameterization for land surface modeling and suggests that data characterizing net carbon fluxes will be key to improving decadal predictions of high-dimensional terrestrial biosphere models.</p

Carbon Dioxide Sources from Alaska Driven by Increasing Early Winter Respiration from Artic Tundra

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate